As President Trump continues to add to and tweak historic tariffs, Americans are fearing the worst. A March survey by Clever Real Estate found that 72% believe tariffs will negatively impact the U.S. economy. Even more people, 82%, think the extra taxes on goods from foreign countries will cause prices to rise. Experts say they’re probably right.
“This is likely to reduce consumer demand, as we see people tightening their spending habits,” said Sami Andreani, a finance expert and Chief Financial Officer at Oppizi. “And when certain budget cuts are made, it can lead to job losses, which means less disposable income for some. When these people start tightening their wallets, businesses feel that hit even more.”
While consumers didn’t really feel the pinch of Trump’s first-term tariffs, this new set is poised to deliver a sharp economic sting, even with some uncertainty about their eventual level and applicability. People have already cut spending to prepare, but dining out less may not be enough to navigate what’s coming. On April 7, Goldman Sachs economists gave the U.S. economy a 45% chance of entering a recession within the following year.
How Americans Feel About Tariffs
Clever’s survey found that 81% of Americans are worried about tariffs or a potential global trade war. Nearly 70% of respondents were more concerned about tariffs or a potential global trade war in March when the survey was conducted than six months prior.
Women are 12% more likely to be concerned than men because they often manage household budgets. Men are also more supportive of tariffs than women are. Overall, 55% of people surveyed support tariffs on Chinese products. Only 42% support tariffs on Mexican items and 34% on Canadian goods.
George Carrillo, CEO of the Hispanic Construction Council (HCC) and Oregon’s former Director of Social Determinants of Health, said daily price increases on essentials like groceries and gas impact women directly and will drive their anxiety. Women already face lower pay and less retirement savings than men. Many women also work in retail and service industries, which are especially sensitive to tariff-driven cost increases and reduced consumer spending.
“Job cuts and economic instability in these fields would further compound their worries,” Carrillo said.
The tariffs are coming alongside deep spending cuts to federal programs and agencies. The combination is tanking consumer confidence as people see soaring prices and little relief.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimates that the proposed tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could raise the cost of imported construction materials by more than $3 billion or about $9,200 per new home. However, proposed cuts to the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) could threaten assistance programs that make homes more affordable for first-time buyers.
How the Economic Impact of Tariffs Has Changed Over Time
Tariffs certainly aren’t new to U.S. economic policy. The Tariff Act of 1789 was a key revenue source for the government and imposed a 5% tax on most imports. The notorious Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 raised the country’s already-high tariffs by 20%, significantly worsening the Great Depression.
“The latter…diminished global trade, worsened the economy, and increased unemployment,” Carrillo said. “It serves as a cautionary tale about the potential consequences of protectionist policies.”
Tariffs were once used to protect trade and primarily impacted the agricultural and manufacturing industries. However, in today’s global economy, President Trump’s plan to levy tariffs on all countries threatens to disrupt international supply chains and affect businesses in every industry. Consumers will pay the difference.
“History suggests that widespread tariffs rarely achieve their intended goals without significant economic fallout,” Carrillo said.
Austin Rulfs, founder of Zanda Wealth, said smaller companies, especially those in property and construction, are already seeing higher material costs — with higher overheads and consumer prices as a result. Some experts anticipate a 22% increase in the cost of residential construction materials. Computer parts, video games, and toys are expected to be 30% more expensive, while clothing increases could be 28–37%.
“The burden of additional costs trickles down,” Rulfs said. “The broader consumer base (property investors and small businesses) could experience the losses.”
Winners and Losers of the Proposed Tariffs
If there’s a beneficiary of the tariff plan, it’s the U.S. government. The Tax Foundation estimates the measures will raise nearly $2.9 trillion in revenue over the next 10 years, not accounting for foreign retaliatory tariffs. In addition, Rulfs said that industries like steel, agriculture, and technology could see a boom now and in the near future.
However, the financial burden of the tariffs will pass to consumers. After-tax income will likely drop by about 1.9%, while each household could see an average tax increase of more than $1,900 this year.
“The losers are clear and widespread,” Carrillo said. “Consumers face increasing costs on imported goods, while small businesses reliant on affordable materials struggle to maintain their margins.”
Exporters will also suffer because they depend on global markets. Companies may avoid hiring workers or expanding their operations, further slowing economic growth. From there, it’s a domino effect: household finances crumble, and the economy becomes unstable.
Marcus Sturdivant Sr., an Advisor, Managing Member, and Chief Compliance Officer at The ABC Squared2, said tariffs also devastate people’s savings and retirement accounts. The S&P 500 fell sharply after tariffs were announced, losing $6 trillion in two days, a decline that brought retirement fund values down by tens of thousands of dollars for many older Americans.
“Markets hate uncertainty, and the first quarter of this administration does not lack for uncertainty,” Sturdivant said. “Mixed or confusing messages have consumer sentiment plunging. The consumers are the biggest losers in the near term.”
What People Can Do to Ease the Pain
The administration’s tariff policy could change at any moment, but it’s wise to take steps to protect your finances. This includes prioritizing a monthly budget, cutting spending, and stockpiling essentials.
Nearly 60% of Americans have already reduced non-essential spending and about 32% are rethinking large financial decisions. For instance, 22% are putting off buying a home, and 13% are delaying a sale. About 8% are now trying to sell their houses fast in case mortgage rates go up and scare off potential buyers.
While it may be tempting to rethink your retirement or savings portfolio, experts recommend staying calm and sticking to your plan. Increase savings and emergency funds and delay retirement distributions if you can. Also, don’t try to predict where the market is heading.
“History shows stocks bounce back,” Sturdivant said. “Time in the market is greater than timing the market, as the old saying goes.”